Nita Morlock

During the final two months of the year, residential real estate traditionally slows down to make way for more holiday, travel and retail spending. Assessing the dominant trend of 2017, most housing markets have seen the number of homes for sale decrease in year-over-year comparisons. So much so, that further decreases in 2018 will be newsworthy, as prices would likely keep rising in a seller’s market. Presently, in a thriving economy with low unemployment, agents and consumers alike still have reason for optimism.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending November 11:

New Listings decreased 7.6% to 924
Pending Sales increased 7.1% to 976
Inventory decreased 18.5% to 10,871

For the month of October:

Median Sales Price increased 6.1% to $244,000
Days on Market decreased 14.8% to 52
Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.8% to 97.7%
Months Supply of Inventory decreased 18.5% to 2.2

All comparisons are to 2016

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

Market flat in preparation for winter

By Erin Milburn on Wednesday, November 15th, 2017

Minneapolis, Minnesota (November 15, 2017) – The Twin Cities housing market is holding steady after both sales and prices reached record highs this year. In October, new listings were up 3.1 percent compared to last October but are on-track for a 2.0 percent decline for the year. Pending sales rose 3.9 percent for the month but will likely be flat compared to all of 2016. Closed sales eked out a 0.3 percent October gain but are also likely to be flat for the year. The number of homes for sale decreased 18.0 percent to 11,221. Absorption rates contracted as well.

Given strong demand and low supply, prices held their ground and marched higher. The median sales price rose 6.1 percent from last October to $244,000. This price metric will likely show a 6.5 percent annual increase. Home prices have now risen for the last 68 consecutive months or over 5.5 years. At 52 days on average compared to 61 last October, homes went under contract 14.8 percent faster. Sellers who list their properties are averaging 97.7 percent of their original list price, 0.8 percent higher than October 2016. The metro area has just 2.2 months of housing supply. Generally, five to six months of supply is considered a balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage.

“We’re still very much on-track with last year’s sales levels,” said Cotty Lowry, Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR) President. “At this point in the year, we begin to look toward annual numbers that are less susceptible to weather and other variables. With only two months to go, we are running just about 70 sales shy of last year’s levels. That’s quite impressive given our dramatic supply shortage.”

Headline figures can often mask important details and specifics of which buyers and seller should be aware. For example, year-to-date, closed sales only fell for homes under $250,000. Sales activity increased for homes priced between $250,000 and $500,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 and for properties over $1,000,000. Market times and the ratio of sales price to list price both improved for each of the above four price ranges. Traditional market activity continues to eclipse distressed activity.

The economy and political climate affect housing. The national unemployment rate is 4.1 percent, though it’s 2.9 percent locally—the third lowest unemployment rate of any major metro area. A thriving and diverse economy has been conducive to housing recovery, as job and wage growth are key to new household formations and housing demand. The Minneapolis–St. Paul region has a resilient economy with a global reach, a talented workforce, top-notch schools, exposure to the growing technology and healthcare fields, and a quality of life that’s enabled one of the highest homeownership rates in the country.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has declined from 4.3 percent to 3.9 percent recently, still well below its long-term average of around 8.0 percent. One additional rate hike may be in the cards this year, but the Fed is focused on unwinding its large portfolio. Additional inventory is still needed in order to offset declining affordability brought on by higher prices and interest rates.

“Keep a close eye on some of the tax reform proposals meandering through Congress,” said Kath Hammerseng, MAAR President-Elect. “Unfortunately, some of the key proposals directly harm the middle class and disincentivize homeownership while adding trillions to the debt.”
From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

For Week Ending November 4, 2017

New tax legislation that could affect the housing market is still currently being discussed and debated by the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, but it appears that important tools used by homeowners, like the mortgage interest deduction, are in line to continue in some capacity. This continuity would be useful for maintaining a positive outlook for residential real estate.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending November 4:

New Listings decreased 8.7% to 1,017
Pending Sales increased 0.8% to 1,076
Inventory decreased 15.3% to 11,585

For the month of September:

Median Sales Price increased 7.4% to $247,000
Days on Market decreased 12.3% to 50
Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.6% to 98.1%
Months Supply of Inventory decreased 16.7% to 2.5

All comparisons are to 2016

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

For Week Ending October 28, 2017

The national unemployment rate registered in at 4.1 percent for October 2017. To put that in perspective, joblessness has not been this low in the U.S. since December 2000. In other positive economic news, mortgage rates have been holding steady at or near 3.9 percent. Historically, the average rate has been around 6.0 percent. Factors such as these keep the pool of potential buyers full, even during the so-called off-season of residential real estate sales.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending October 28:

New Listings increased 2.7% to 1,076
Pending Sales decreased 2.2% to 1,001
Inventory decreased 16.4% to 11,932

For the month of September:

Median Sales Price increased 7.4% to $247,000
Days on Market decreased 12.3% to 50
Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.6% to 98.1%
Months Supply of Inventory decreased 16.7% to 2.5

All comparisons are to 2016

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

For Week Ending October 21, 2017

The level of real estate activity should subside each week for the remainder of the year. Savvy real estate professionals not only begin to plan now for another successful year next year, but they continue to track the trends to see where prices, listings and other metrics are at relative to last year and all past years of available data. Finding reliable patterns in the trends is a sure way to be of greater service to buyers and sellers. Let’s see where those trends are in our local market.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending October 21:

New Listings increased 10.5% to 1,329
Pending Sales decreased 4.4% to 1,016
Inventory decreased 17.7% to 12,042

For the month of September:

Median Sales Price increased 7.2% to $246,650
Days on Market decreased 12.3% to 50
Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.6% to 98.1%
Months Supply of Inventory decreased 16.7% to 2.5

All comparisons are to 2016

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

For Week Ending October 14, 2017

Much was made of the homeownership rate dropping to a 50-year low last year. It was thought that tastes had changed, especially among Millennials, and that people craved more mobility through rentals and smaller, more urban homes. Then something happened earlier this year: Millennials drove up the homeownership rate. Judging by continued buyer demand well into autumn, it would seem that owning a home is still as desirable today as it was 50 years ago.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending October 14:

New Listings decreased 1.7% to 1,365
Pending Sales decreased 5.1% to 1,027
Inventory decreased 17.2% to 12,247

For the month of September:

Median Sales Price increased 7.2% to $246,500
Days on Market decreased 12.3% to 50
Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.6% to 98.1%
Months Supply of Inventory decreased 16.7% to 2.5

All comparisons are to 2016

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

September Monthly Skinny Video

Slight cool-down possible, particularly under $250,000

By Erin Milburn on Monday, October 16th, 2017

The red-hot Twin Cities housing market is starting to cool off just a bit. While June 2017 marked an all-time record for Twin Cities home sales and prices, purchase demand declined from last year for a third consecutive month. New listings decreased 5.2 percent from September 2016 to 6,472, and pending sales dipped 1.7 percent. The number of homes for sale decreased 16.7 percent to 12,502. Excluding the limited number of foreclosures and short sales, traditional new listings fell 3.6 percent while traditional pending sales increased 0.1 percent.

Since competition over limited supply remains intense, prices kept firm. The median sales price rose 7.3 percent from last year to $246,900. Home prices have now risen for the last 67 consecutive months or over 5.5 years. At 50 days on average, homes went under contract 12.3 percent faster than last September. Sellers who choose to list their properties are averaging 98.1 percent of their original list price, 0.6 percent higher than September 2016. The metro area has just 2.5 months of housing supply. Generally, five to six months of supply is considered a balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers have a clear advantage.

“There’s no other way to say it: sentiment out there may be starting to change,” said Cotty Lowry, Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR) President. “Sometimes shifting markets can bring out a lot of pessimism, which can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The likely scenario may be a brief pause in the trend we’ve seen. That’s not a bad thing, since it allows incomes a chance to catch up and takes the intensity down a notch.
”Sometimes market-wide figures mask important segment-specific realities and other indicators that buyers and sellers should be aware of. For example, closed sales only fell for homes under $250,000. Sales increased for homes priced between $250,000 and $500,000, $500,000 and $1,000,000 and for properties over $1,000,000. Market times and the ratio of sales price to list price both improved for each of the above four price ranges.

The most recent national unemployment rate is 4.4 percent, though it’s 3.4 percent locally—the third lowest unemployment rate of any major metro area. A thriving and diverse economy has been conducive to housing recovery, as job and wage growth are key to new household formations and housing demand. The Minneapolis–St. Paul region has a resilient economy with a global reach, a talented workforce, top-notch schools, exposure to the growing technology and healthcare fields, and a quality of life that’s enabled one of the highest homeownership rates in the country.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has declined from 4.3 percent to 3.8 percent recently, still well below its long-term average of around 8.0 percent. One additional rate hike may be in the cards this year, but the Fed is focused on unwinding its large portfolio. Additional inventory is still needed in order to offset declining affordability brought on by higher prices and interest rates.

“Throughout the recovery, the affordable end of the market has been the focus,” said Kath Hammerseng, MAAR President-Elect. “For homes above $250,000, the market is better supplied, less competitive and is still expanding—it’s really the bottom-end of the market that’s feeling the most inventory and therefore sales pressure.”
From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

For Week Ending October 7, 2017

Many potential buyers are simply not on the market during this time of year, as school-aged children settle into routines and the gainfully employed focus more on end-of-year goals and holiday planning over taking on a big move. But not all buyers are equal. Consider instead the first-time buyers with no children, relocated employees, investment buyers, bargain hunters and those with generally fewer ties to established routines.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending October 7:

New Listings decreased 1.3% to 1,395
Pending Sales increased 4.1% to 1,103
Inventory decreased 16.6% to 12,378

For the month of September:

Median Sales Price increased 7.3% to $246,800
Days on Market decreased 12.3% to 50
Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.6% to 98.1%
Months Supply of Inventory decreased 16.7% to 2.5

All comparisons are to 2016

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.