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Home Prices Continue Their Ascent as Inventory Searches for Bottom

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Recovery continued across the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan housing market even with our first taste of fall weather. Sellers regained some enthusiasm as new listings rose 19.3 percent to 6,372, marking the sixth consecutive year-over-year increase in monthly seller activity.

Buyers closed on 4,667 homes, a 14.5 percent increase over last September. Consumers have 15,968 properties from which to choose – 7.1 percent fewer than September 2012 but 22.5 percent more than in January 2013.

The overall median sales price stood at $195,000, up 11.7 percent compared to September 2012. Three factors have coalesced to attain higher sales prices: less supply, more demand and a sales mix that’s returning to traditional sales and away from foreclosures.

In September 2011, foreclosures and short sales together comprised 46.1 percent of all closed sales. In September 2013, these two segments made up only 21.9 percent of sales.

“Median sales prices have increased for 19 consecutive months in year-over-year comparisons,” said Andy Fazendin, President of the Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR). “Rising rents, affordable prices and low interest rates continue to drive sales increases.”

While closed sales were up 14.5 percent overall, traditional buyer activity was up 37.3 percent. Foreclosure sales and short sales were down 27.3 and 30.0 percent, respectively.

Similarly, new listings were up 19.3 percent overall, but traditional seller activity rallied 42.6 percent higher as foreclosure and short sale new listings fell 29.6 and 42.6 percent, respectively.

Homes are selling in an average of 71 days, continuing a low-number trend from last month that we haven’t seen around here for more than six years. Sellers are receiving an average of 96.5 percent of their original list price – the highest September ratio since 2005. The Twin Cities is at 3.6 months’ supply of inventory for September 2013.

The traditional median sales price rose 4.4 percent to $217,000; the foreclosure median sales price was up 8.0 percent to $134,900; the short sale median sales price increased 10.9 percent to $145,250.

“With price gains continuing and multiple-offer situations still common, market recovery and stability has been the order of the day,” said Emily Green, MAAR President-Elect. “Activity should begin its season slowdown, but we expect year-over-year activity to remain positive.”

The Skinny

Foreclosure and Short Sales at Lowest Level Since 2007

6a00e54ee9620b8834019aff58559a970d-800wiTwin Cities home buyers were unflustered by slightly higher interest rates in August as pending sales were up 10.9 percent to 5,244. Along with rising prices, increased sales activity is fueling housing demand, while buyers continue to watch inventory levels for more options.

New listings rose 16.5 percent to 6,951, marking the fifth consecutive year-over-year increase in seller activity. Buyers have 15,773 properties from which to choose – 9.9 percent fewer than August 2012 but 21.2 percent more than in January 2013.

The overall median sales price was $208,000, up 16.9 percent compared to August 2012. A shift in sales type is driving this price growth. At this time last year, foreclosures and short sales together comprised 35.8 percent of all sales activity. In August 2013, these two distressed segments made up just 20.7 percent of all sales. On the seller side, the percentage of all new listings that were distressed in August fell to 17.8 percent, down from 32.7 percent in 2012.

While closed sales were up 8.9 percent overall, traditional buyer activity was up 34.7 percent. Foreclosure sales and short sales were down 34.5 and 43.5 percent, respectively. Similarly, new listings were up 16.5 percent overall, but traditional seller activity rocketed 42.1 percent higher. Foreclosure new listings fell 31.4 percent and short sale new listings fell 46.0 percent. With 18 straight months of year-over-year median price gains, multiple-offer situations still common and 3.6 months’ supply of inventory, few thought that the pendulum would swing this far this fast. Homes are selling in an average of 70 days – the quickest pace in six and a half years. Sellers are receiving an average of 97.0 percent of their original list price – the highest ratio in approximately seven years.

The traditional median sales price rose 3.7 percent to $228,000; the foreclosure median sales price was up 14.1 percent to $140,400; the short sale median sales price increased 13.4 percent to $142,608. On average, traditional homes sold in 62 days for 97.2 percent of original list price, foreclosures sold in 79 days for 97.1 percent of original list price and short sales lagged at 163 days and 94.2 percent of original list price.

The Skinny

Traditional (Non-Bank) Activity Driving the Housing Market Up

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The Twin Cities were once again buzzing with housing activity in July. Rising rents combined with still-favorable prices and mortgage rates have resulted in ongoing housing recovery. House hunters continue to eye seller activity for hints of additional inventory. New listings rose a healthy 24.6 percent, the second-largest gain since April 2010. Buyers have 15,671 properties from which to choose – 13.0 percent fewer than in July 2012 but still marking the smallest year-over-year decline in inventory in more than two years.

The overall median sales price was $208,757, up 17.2 percent compared to July 2012. A shift in sales type is driving this price growth. As recently as July 2011, foreclosures and short sales together comprised 45.4 percent of all sales activity. In July 2013, these two distressed segments made up just 20.6 percent of all sales. On the seller side, the percentage of all new listings that were distressed in July fell to 17.9 percent, down from 41.2 percent in July 2011.

New listings were up 24.6 percent overall, but traditional seller activity surged 55.7 percent – the most in nearly ten years. Foreclosure new listings decreased 31.2 percent and short sale new listings fell 42.1 percent. With 17 straight months of year-over-year median price gains, multiple-offer situations and just 3.6 months’ supply of inventory, the same market that recently favored buyers is now tilting toward sellers. Homes are selling in an average of 72 days – the quickest pace in six and a half years. Sellers are receiving an average of 97.5 percent of their original list price – the highest ratio in just over seven years.

The traditional median sales price rose 3.6 percent to $224,900; the foreclosure median sales price was up 11.6 percent to $135,000; the short sale median sales price increased 18.6 percent to $153,000. On average, traditional homes sold in 62 days for 97.6 percent of original list price, foreclosures sold in 83 days for 98.3 percent of original list price and short sales lagged at 166 days and 93.8 percent of original list price.

The Skinny

Median Price Exceeds $200,000 – Highest Since 2007

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In light of a 14.2 percent increase in pending sales, Twin Cities home buyers seem unphased by recent mortgage rate increases. Even with rates around 4.5 percent, the housing stock remains highly affordable by historical comparison. In 25 of the past 26 months, there have been year-over-year gains in pending sales; and the metric is currently at its highest level since June 2006. House hunters are watching seller activity for clues of additional inventory.New listings rose 20.0 percent, the second-largest gain since March 2010. Buyers have 15,193 properties from which to choose – 17.2 percent fewer than in June 2012 but 17.4 percent more than in January 2013.

The median sales price for the metro area rose 17.5 percent to $210,000. That’s the highest median sales price since December 2007. A shift in sales types is driving this price recovery. As recently as February 2011, foreclosures and short sales comprised 61.5 percent of all sales activity.

In June 2013, these two distressed segments together comprised just 21.7 percent of all sales. On the seller side, the percentage of all new listings that were distressed in June fell to 16.8 percent, its lowest level since September 2007.

Seller activity was up 20.0 percent overall, but traditional new listings surged 44.4 percent. Foreclosure new listings decreased 24.6 percent and short sale new listings fell 51.7 percent. With 16 straight months of year-over-year price gains, multiple-offer situations and just 3.5 months’ supply of inventory, the same market that recently favored buyers is now tilting toward sellers.

Looking at price movement by segment, the traditional median sales price rose 8.7 percent to $232,000; the foreclosure median sales price was up 16.9 percent to $145,000; the short sale median sales price increased 14.2 percent, also to $145,000.

On average, traditional homes sold in 68 days for 97.7 percent of original list price, foreclosures sold in 71 days for 98.2 percent of original list price and short sales lagged at 156 days and 93.0 percent of original list price.

The Skinny

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