Nita Morlock

Weekly Market Report

For Week Ending June 9, 2018

The Federal Reserve recently increased the federal funds rate by 0.25 percent, marking the second rate hike this year and seventh since late 2015. Two more 0.25 percent increases are expected by the end of the year. The 30-year mortgage rate did not increase, yet Fed action can have an indirect effect on the housing market. Buyers often react by trying to lock in at the current rate ahead of assumed future higher rates. Educating consumers that the Fed rate and mortgage rates are not the same can help curb panic buying.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending June 9:

New Listings decreased 2.7% to 2,094
Pending Sales decreased 4.1% to 1,450
Inventory decreased 18.5% to 10,623

For the month of May:

Median Sales Price increased 8.4% to $271,000
Days on Market decreased 9.6% to 47
Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.7% to 100.2%
Months Supply of Inventory decreased 12.0% to 2.2

All comparisons are to 2017

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

Long-Term Price Trend

By David Arbit on Tuesday, June 12th, 2018

Have you ever wondered to yourself what the home price trendline would look like compared to a hypothetical trendline that starts at the same price in 1990 but increased at a steady and predictable 4% annual growth? Well you’re in luck, because that’s exactly the sort of in-depth market insights that we serve up on a regular basis.

As you can see, recorded average sales prices were well above their trend from 1997 through 2008. The gravity or weight behind the long-term average has an inescapable pull. Some call this return to the average a “reversion to the mean.” There will always be short-term market fluctuations, but the overall long-term direction and growth of the market is upward at around 4-5% per year (before inflation). When we use the 4% figure, prices are only slightly above trend. If we were to use the 5% figure, prices would appear drastically undervalued relative to their long-term average.

The truth, as always, is somewhere in the middle.

*(Note that 2018 data is year-to-date up through April)
From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

For Week Ending June 2, 2018

At this time last year, there were two universal truths in residential real estate across the country. Whether or not sales were up in year-over-year comparisons, the market was assuredly active, and, thus, overall inventory was trending downward compared to the year before. That remained the case for the entirety of 2017, and that refrain sounds entirely familiar for the duration of 2018.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending June 2:

New Listings decreased 3.0% to 1,946
Pending Sales decreased 1.5% to 1,407
Inventory decreased 17.6% to 10,530

For the month of April:

Median Sales Price increased 8.9% to $266,750
Days on Market decreased 10.2% to 53
Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.8% to 99.9%
Months Supply of Inventory decreased 20.8% to 1.9

All comparisons are to 2017

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

For Week Ending May 26, 2018

Residential real estate activity is in full swing across America. Some trends are persisting as they have week after week, month after month and now year after year. But some metrics are teasing a deviation from the norm. There may not be as many homes for sale as there were last year at this time, and home price increases are still more likely than not, but there is a chance that we could see more positive changes in either sales or new listings as the summer months progress.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending May 26:

New Listings increased 5.5% to 1,817
Pending Sales decreased 9.9% to 1,405
Inventory decreased 19.4% to 10,322

For the month of April:

Median Sales Price increased 8.8% to $266,500
Days on Market decreased 10.2% to 53
Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.8% to 99.9%
Months Supply of Inventory decreased 20.8% to 1.9

All comparisons are to 2017

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

April Monthly Skinny Video

Weekly Market Report

For Week Ending May 19, 2018

According to the National Association of REALTORS®, existing home sales were down 2.5 percent for the nation as a whole in April. While local trends do not necessarily coincide with national trends, a holistic outlook can often explain the general state of feelings regarding residential real estate. Sales have been lower in year-over-year comparisons in the hottest submarkets due to low inventory and a speed to sale that is faster than the market can replenish itself.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending May 19:

New Listings increased 8.9% to 2,279
Pending Sales decreased 10.2% to 1,437
Inventory decreased 22.6% to 9,768

For the month of April:

Median Sales Price increased 9.0% to $267,000
Days on Market decreased 10.2% to 53
Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.8% to 99.9%
Months Supply of Inventory decreased 20.8% to 1.9

All comparisons are to 2017

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

For Week Ending May 19, 2018

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending May 19:

New Listings increased 8.9% to 2,279
Pending Sales decreased 10.2% to 1,437
Inventory decreased 22.6% to 9,768

For the month of April:

Median Sales Price increased 9.0% to $267,000
Days on Market decreased 10.2% to 53
Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.8% to 99.9%
Months Supply of Inventory decreased 20.8% to 1.9

All comparisons are to 2017

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

Slightly less activity yet higher prices in less time

By David Arbit on Tuesday, May 22nd, 2018

Housing demand is strong and supply is low. That’s been the story for a few years. But there is some early evidence that things could be starting to loosen up. That said, buyers shopping this spring will still face stiff competition. The lack of inventory combined with rising prices is encouraging some sellers to stay put; however, the move up market offers a bit more inventory. This combined with historically low interest rates creates a perfect opportunity for homeowners looking to move up.

In April, sellers listed 7.2 percent fewer homes on the market—the sixth consecutive month of declines compared to a year ago. Largely due to the shortage, closed sales declined 5.2 percent compared to the prior year. For-sale housing inventory was 25.1 percent lower than April 2017. This shortage, which is particularly acute at the entry-level prices, has created a competitive environment where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price have become more common. Sellers are often receiving strong offers close to their original list price quickly, which can sometimes frustrate home buyers.

New construction closed sales rose 13.2 percent compared to last April. Although single family homes made up about 73.0 percent of all sales, townhomes and condos have seen stronger demand lately. Similarly, previously-owned homes made up about 90.0 percent of sales, but new construction showed a much stronger increase in pending and closed purchase activity. The average time on market is still 53 days, reminding sellers that they still need to stage and price their homes well.

April 2018 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)
• Sellers listed 7,321 properties on the market, a 7.2 percent decrease
• Buyers closed on 4,635 homes, a 5.2 percent decrease
• Inventory levels for April fell 25.1 percent compared to 2017 to 8,958 units
• Months Supply of Inventory was down 25.0 percent to 1.8 months
• The Median Sales Price rose 8.6 percent to $266,000, a record high for April
• Cumulative Days on Market declined 10.2 percent to 53 days, on average (median of 18)
• Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment

Single family sales declined 6.4 percent; condo sales rose 3.0 percent; townhome sales rose 1.0 percent
Traditional sales fell 2.8 percent; foreclosure sales decreased 43.3 percent; short sales fell 20.0 percent
Previously-owned sales fell 5.6 percent; new construction sales rose 13.2 percent

From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

For Week Ending May 12, 2018

Inventory and days on market both continue to skim along at historic lows, while buyer demand is creating competitive purchase offer situations that are increasing the number of homes sold for more than the asking price. This practice is nothing new in more popular areas, but higher offers are becoming normal outside of the hottest cities and neighborhoods. Affordability is a challenge for some potential buyers, yet prices still rise in an environment of economic confidence.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending May 12:

New Listings decreased at 2,073
Pending Sales decreased 5.5% to 1,466
Inventory decreased 23.9% to 9,446

For the month of April:

Median Sales Price increased 8.9% to $266,750
Days on Market decreased 10.2% to 53
Percent of Original List Price Received increased 0.7% to 99.8%
Months Supply of Inventory decreased 20.8% to 1.9

All comparisons are to 2017

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.

Weekly Market Report

For Week Ending May 5, 2018

Year-over-year percentage changes for housing metrics like inventory, median sales price and days on market have sometimes looked dramatic over the past few years in most markets across the country not named Houston. But as faster sales and higher prices persist, another trend is beginning to emerge: reliability. Although more market balance is preferred, the current situation has proven to be surprisingly sustainable, at least for the time being.

In the Twin Cities region, for the week ending May 5:

New Listings decreased 13.9% to 2,054
Pending Sales decreased 10.0% to 1,456
Inventory decreased 23.2% to 9,155

For the month of March:

Median Sales Price increased 9.8% to $258,050
Days on Market decreased 21.9% to 57
Percent of Original List Price Received increased 1.1% to 99.1%
Months Supply of Inventory decreased 22.7% to 1.7

All comparisons are to 2017

Click here for the full Weekly Market Activity Report. From The Skinny Blog.