By Aubray Erhardt on Wednesday, September 14th, 2016

Seller activity increased 2.1 percent since last August, as sellers introduced 7,072 new listings to the marketplace. Buyer activity also rallied. Pending sales rose 7.9 percent while closed sales gained 7.4 percent. To fuel those gains, buyers signed 5,728 new contracts and closed on 6,382 homes. That closed sales figure is on par with 2004 levels. Although the median sales price has reached its seasonal peak for 2016, it increased 5.7 percent since August 2015 to $237,750. Adding to the pressure facing buyers, inventory levels fell 18.8 percent to 13,933 active properties. Inventory constraints haven’t slowed down buyers yet, but additional listings are needed to ease the contentious landscape.

Low inventory has enabled homes to sell in near record time. Average days on market until sale fell 14.1 percent to 55 days. That’s the second fastest market time for any month since the beginning of 2007. The average percent of original list price received at sale was 97.9 percent, the highest figure for any August since 2005. Months supply of inventory fell 24.3 percent to 2.8 months—the lowest August figure on record since the beginning of 2003. Generally, five to six months of supply is considered a balanced market. This indicator measures the balance between supply and demand in the marketplace.

“Absorption rates under 3.0 months suggests things are still pretty tight out there as we transition to autumn,” said Judy Shields, Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR) President. “But there are still peculiarities across locations and segments. Blaine is not Linden Hills and downtown condos are not suburban single family new construction. It’s important to have all the facts before making a move.”

Despite the fact that both seller and buyer activity increased in August, important asymmetries persist. Over the last three years, buyer activity has steadily marched higher while seller activity has essentially bounced around the 7,000 unit marker, thus straining supply levels.

A strong Twin Cities labor market has also helped promote housing recovery. The most recent national unemployment rate is 4.9 percent, though it’s a healthier 3.5 percent locally. The Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington metropolitan area has the second lowest unemployment rate of any major metro area, trailing only Denver by 0.1 percent.

Locally, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 3.47 percent compared to a long-term average of about 8.0 percent. Rates are now at their lowest level in three years. Marginally higher rates were widely expected in 2016, but the Federal Reserve hasn’t made a move since last December. Markets currently peg the odds of a September rate hike at around 20.0 percent. Barring any surprising economic data, the Fed will likely raise rates this December.

“In the near term, buyer and seller activity always quiets down around this time of year and that shouldn’t cause concern,” said Cotty Lowry, MAAR President-Elect. “Over the long term, favorable interest rates, rising rents and a strong labor market should be conducive to housing. But we’ll need some additional inventory—particularly in the affordable brackets—in order to keep up with consumer demand.”

From The Skinny Blog.

By Aubray Erhardt on Friday, August 12th, 2016

Seller activity declined 5.5 percent since last July, as sellers introduced 7,522 new listings to the marketplace. Sales activity was slightly below year-ago levels. Closed sales fell 5.8 percent while pending sales—the number of signed purchase agreements—fell 3.1 percent. Buyers signed 5,560 new contracts and closed on 6,030 homes. That closed sales figure is on par with July 2003 levels. The July median sales price retreated slightly since June 2016, but increased 6.6 percent from July 2015 to $239,900. Mostly due to inventory constraints, prospective sellers are concerned about their ability to secure their next property in the current environment. Buyers saw little supply side relief, as inventory levels fell 18.1 percent to 14,457 active properties. The well-known inventory shortages haven’t slowed down buyers much, given June 2016 closed sales at a 12-year high.

Low inventory, however, has helped draw out stronger offers. The average percent of original list price received at sale was 98.4 percent, the highest figure for any July since 2005. Low levels of for-sale housing also means the homes on the market tend to sell quickly. Cumulative days on market until sale fell 15.9 percent to 53 days. That’s the fastest market time for any month since the beginning of 2007. Months supply of inventory fell 23.7 percent to 2.9 months—the lowest July figure on record going back to the beginning of 2003. Generally, five to six months of supply is considered a balanced market.

Our days on market indicator tells us that most homes are selling pretty quickly,” said Judy Shields, Minneapolis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR) President. “But that market-wide figure leaves out important differences between various communities, property types and price points. For example, the July market-wide average was 53 days but homes priced above $1 million are spending 174 days on the market.”

Over the last 12 months, properties in the $190,000 to $250,000 range have tended to sell the quickest, at an average of 54 days. As the price point rises, so does the amount of time spent on the market. There is a sweet spot whereby both lower and higher priced homes take longer to sell.

It’s also worth noting that the average market time figure can be skewed by properties that linger on the market. The median days on market was actually 25 for July, reflecting the mid-point where half the homes spent longer than 25 days on the market and half spent less.

“Those selling properties above the $500,000 mark know that patience is a virtue even in our current environment,” said Cotty Lowry, MAAR President-Elect. “The supply-demand balance in that segment is less competitive than the entry-level price points, plus consumers are limiting how much house they buy.”

From The Skinny Blog.